Japan has proposed a “Quadrilateral” grouping consisting of India, Australia, USA and Japan.
The purpose is to provide alternative debt financing for countries in the Indo-Pacific.
While India has consented, caution is needed as the proposal will enhance the engagement of extra-regional powers in its backyard.
How is India’s current regional profile?
India is already working with the U.S. on transmission lines in Nepal, and with Japan on a LNG line in Sri Lanka.
Nevertheless, an active encouragement of extra-regional powers by India to operate in the sub-continent is a new beginning.
If seen in the larger context, this is a mark of India’s reducing clout over the neighbourhood.
Bhutan – Bhutan’s parliament recently noted high debts owed to India’s due to its un-sustainable ‘hydro-power project’ loans.
As India has also shown reluctance to revise buying tariffs and facilitate power swap deals for Bhutanese companies, considerable friction has been caused.
Sri Lanka - Over the past decade, India ignored various offers to build ports despite Sri Lanka’s pressing need for infrastructure.
Despite Sri Lanka’s pro-India outlook, China stepped up to grab multiple projects by bankrolling them through its ExIm bank.
As India is currently worried about growing Chinese presence, it is upturning for everything on the offer without rationality.
The un-viability of such bids has been exemplified by the $205 million offer for the development of Hambantota airport that sees just 2 flights a day.
While, the intention to build a counter to China in the neighbourhood is apparent, it isn’t being strategically thought out.
Nepal – Here, India lost out to China as it allowed a five-month-long blockade at the border, which pressed for constitutional reforms.
Notably, China has created roads and other infrastructure to make Nepal’s terrain more accessible from their side.
What are the risks for India?
While the quadrilateral grouping will bring developmental projects, it will considerably erode India’s primacy in the neighbourhood region.
While India has impeded Chinese desires to have a diplomatic mission in Bhutan, it would be a challenge if US pursues the same.
Similarly, India also runs the risk of seeding ground to Japanese & US Navies in Sri Lanka.
