UPSC Daily Current Affairs | Prelim Bits 26-09-2024

Forecasting GDP growth of India

OECD recently revises India’s FY25 growth forecast upward to 6.7% in its Interim Economic Outlook.

Analysis

• OECD – It revises growth upward to 6.7% in FY25 and noted that growth is expected to increase to 6.8% in FY26.
• Asian Development Bank – It retained India’s growth at 7% for FY25, projecting a pick up to 7.2% in FY26.
• World Bank – It has raised its growth forecast for India's economy to 7 per cent for the current financial year (FY25), up from an earlier projection of 6.6 per cent
• Nomura - Lowered its FY25 economic growth forecast for India to 6.7% from 6.9%.
• RBI- Upgraded its GDP growth projection for FY25 to 7.2%.
• Morgan Stanley - Raised its India GDP growth forecast for FY25 to 6.8%.

Trends

• Inflation - Inflation is also projected to be higher at 4.5% compared with 4.3% projected in May.
• Prices would likely inch towards the RBI’s mid-point target of 4% in FY26.
• Consumer inflation – It remained below 4% in July and August and economists expect it to rise to 5% in the coming months.
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - It reflects demand in the economy, grew by 6.7% in the quarter under consideration, compared to 8.2% during the same period of the last fiscal and 7.8% in the previous quarter.
• Gross Value Added (GVA) - It reflects supply in the economy, rose to 6.8% during Q1 of FY25 compared to 8.3% in the corresponding quarter of the last fiscal and 6.3% of the previous quarter.
• Manufacturing - Accounts for about 17% of India’s GDP, grew by 7% year-on-year in the April-June quarter, compared to an 8.9% expansion in the previous quarter.
• Agricultural output - Grew 2% year-on-year in the same period, up from 1.1% in the previous quarter.

Global GDP growth is projected to stabilize at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025.

References

1. Money Control | OECD revises India’s FY25 growth
2. The Hindu Business Line | India’s GDP Growth

World Gorilla Day

Uganda Celebrates Conservation Success on World Gorilla Day titled Over 30 Years of Impact in Mountain Gorilla Conservation.

• World Gorilla Day is an annual event held on September 24.
• Established on - World Gorilla Day dates back to 2017 when the Karisoke Research Centre celebrated its 50^th anniversary.
• Dr. Dian Fossey, a renowned primatologist, founded the centre in 1967 to conserve and research gorillas in Rwanda’s Volcanoes National Park.
• Fossey’s revolutionary work with mountain gorillas has significantly impacted their survival and spurred global efforts to safeguard all gorilla species.
• The day celebrates gorillas and empowers global communities to take action to protect this critically endangered species.
• The day also provides an opportunity for people to safeguard their future in alignment with the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals.

Gorillas

• Gorillas are the largest living primates.
• Weight - Males weighing up to 485 pounds and reaching heights of 5.5 feet.
• Appearance - Gorillas have black hair and skin, large nostrils, and prominent brow ridges. They have small eyes and lack hair on their face, hands, and feet.
• Species - There are 2 gorilla species
  • The eastern gorilla(G. beringei) -   (The mountain gorilla(G. beringei beringei) is a subspecies of the eastern gorilla) and
  • The western gorilla(Gorilla gorilla).
• Habitat - Gorillas live in the tropical forests of equatorial Africa.
• Distribution - The two types of gorillas live on opposite sides of the Republic of the Congo, separated by the Congo basin forest.
  • The eastern gorillas are found in Rwanda, Uganda, and the Republic of the Congo.
  • Western gorillas live in Angola, Cameroon, Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Nigeria.
• Closest relatives - Gorillas share 98.3% of their genetic code with humans, making them our closest cousins after chimpanzees and bonobos.
• Structure – Gorillas are social animals and live in family groups called troops.
• Gorillas are polygamous a single adult male gorilla, called a silverback, leads a troop and mates with multiple females.
• Diet – Vegetarians.
• Conservation status - IUCN - Both the eastern and western gorilla are classified as "Critically Endangered".
• Threats - Habitat loss and fragmentation, disease, hunting, illegal logging, palm oil plantations, and forest fires.

Reference

Down to Earth | World Gorilla Day 2024

Asia Power Index, 2024

Ministry of Information and Broadcasting recently says that India surpasses Japan to become 3^rd largest power in Asia power index.

• Asia power Index - The Asia Power Index measures resources and influence to rank the relative power of states in Asia.
• Launched by - The Lowy Institute in 2018.
• Evaluation - It evaluates 27 countries across the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on their ability to shape and respond to external geopolitical challenges.
• The index is an analytical tool that helps sharpen debate on power in Asia and track shifts in the distribution of power over time.
• Theme- The project evaluates international power in Asia through 131 indicators across 8 thematic measures
  • Military capability and defence networks,
  • Economic capability and relationships,
  • Diplomatic and cultural influence,
  • Resilience and future resources.
• The 2024 edition includes Timor-Leste for the first time, reflecting its growing importance as a result of likely accession to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in coming years.

Status of India, 2024

• Factors for growth - India surpasses Russia and Japan due to its rise in dynamic growth, youthful population, and its expanding economy.
• PPP - India experienced a 4.2-point boost in Economic Capability, primarily driven by its strong GDP growth and status as the world’s 3^rd largest economy in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms.
• Resources - India’s Future Resources score also saw a notable increase of 8.2 points, highlighting its potential demographic advantage.
• Youth population - Unlike aging populations in China and Japan, India’s youthful demographic is expected to fuel continued economic expansion and workforce growth in the coming years.
• Diplomacy - The report further noted India’s growing influence in multilateral diplomacy and regional security.
• India's active participation in groups like the Quad and its leadership in regional dialogues have bolstered its position in regional security without the need for formal military alliances.
• Geopolitics - Additionally, defense deals such as the BrahMos missile agreement with the Philippines point to India's expanding geopolitical ambitions.
• The report also finds that India’s ability to project power east of the Malacca Strait is limited.

References

1. Economic Times | India surpasses Japan in Asia Power Index
2. Lowy Institute | About

Doctrine of Constructive Possession

The Supreme Court called for the need to have sex education programs in schools in an effort to mitigate the menace of child pornography.

• Constructive possession - Constructive possession refers to a legal theory whereby an individual can be considered in possession of an item without having physical control over it.
• In essence, it is the ability and intent to exercise control over an object, even if it is not physically on one’s person.
• Courts use this doctrine to extend liability and responsibility to individuals who, while not directly holding an item, have dominion and control over it.
• Constructive possession legally functions as actual possession in a variety of ways.
  • In criminal law, establishing constructive possession is often done to further prosecutions for possession crimes, such as possession of illegal drugs.
  • In property law, establishing constructive possession grants the owner the right to obtain physical control and/or a variety of rights over someone else’s physical control of that property.
• Generally, for a court to find that a person had constructive possession of an object, the person must have had knowledge of the object, and as well as the ability to control it.
• Legal Criteria- For a successful prosecution of constructive possession, certain criteria must be met.
  • Knowledge of the Item’s Presence - The individual must be aware that the item exists. Mere proximity to an item without knowledge does not constitute constructive possession.
  • Ability to Exercise Control - The person must have the capability to maintain dominion over the item. This means having the power and intention to control its use.
  • Intent to Possess - There must be an intent to possess the item. This can often be inferred from circumstances, such as the location of the item and the individual’s actions or statements.

References

1. The Hindu | SC clarification on online content on child sex abuse
2. India Today | Supreme Court bats for sex education in schools

Pact for the Future

United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) Global leaders recently embraced the Pact for the Future.

• It is a significant declaration promising tangible actions aimed at fostering a safer, more peaceful, sustainable, and inclusive world for future generations.
• Focus areas
  • Sustainable development
  • International peace and security
  • Science and technology
  • Youth and future generations and
  • Transforming global governance.
• Multilateral financial institutions and the United Nations have come up short seeking solutions to 21^st century problems, the pact lays out.
• By endorsing the Pact, UN Member States pledged, among other things includes
  • Turbocharge the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on climate change, 2 landmark 2015 agreements that have seen halting progress and missed milestones
  • Listen to young people and include them in decision-making, at the national and global levels
  • Build stronger partnerships with civil society, the private sector, local and regional authorities and more
  • Redouble efforts to build and sustain peaceful, inclusive and just societies and address the root causes of conflicts
  • Protect all civilians in armed conflict
  • Accelerate the implementation of our commitments on women, peace and security
• In annex Global Digital Compact and Declaration on Future Generations was also adopted unanimously.

Global Digital Compact

• The Global Digital Compact marks the first truly worldwide agreement on the international regulation of artificial intelligence (AI).
• It outlines commitments to ensure that digital technologies contribute to sustainable development and human rights, while addressing risks like digital divides, cybersecurity, and misuse of technology.
• The Compact aims to bridge the digital divide and ensure AI technologies are used responsibly, fostering global cooperation on both AI capabilities and security threats.
• Governments are also obligated to form an impartial worldwide Scientific Panel on AI and start an international conversation about AI governance inside the UN.

Declaration on Future Generations

• The Declaration on Future Generations focuses on securing the well-being of future generations, also highlighting the need to include their interests in decision-making processes.
• It also underlines the importance of protecting the environment, promoting intergenerational equity, and ensuring that long-term consequences of today's actions are considered.

Reference

United Nations | Pact for the Future