Changing dynamic between the traditional hegemon, USA and its challenger, China is becoming apparent.
While it is clear that Washington and Beijing need each other, the terms of a new economic and political settlement is far from clear.
What constituted Trump’s Asia Tour?
Objectives:
Greater reciprocity in the commercial engagement with Asia
Strengthening US alliances and partnerships in the region
Solving North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme
Schedule:
Trump is participating in two major regional summits
Forum for Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation in Vietnam
East Asia Summit in the Philippines.
He also had bilateral visits to Japan & South Korea.
This was then followed by a bilateral visit to China, which was considered the most important aspect of the trip.
Tone:
Most Asian leaders were seen trying please the American President during the recent visit by heaping elaborate praise.
The China bilateral was particularly noticeable for its mutual flattery between Mr.Xi & Mr.Trump.
However, while flattery certainly generates the right mood music, it is not enough to resolve structural problems.
What are the challenges?
The difficulties in advancing the objectives on all the three fronts are immense.
Trump’s exchanges with Xi are also emblematic of the new complexities driving Asian politics.
USA has also been pressing for “fair” rather than “free trade” with Asia – which highlights the USAs trade friction with china.
Notably, USA’s has a large trade deficit with China.
Accommodating China’s rise without abandoning its long-standing allies and friends in the region is another major challenge.
How has Beijing responded?
Economic - Beijing wrapping a package of commercial deals with American companies amounting to $250 billion.
But many of these deals will take a long time to materialise as they are MoUs rather than commercial contracts.
While this will give Mr.Trump some room to drop his hostile rhetoric against China, it does nothing to address USA’s massive trade deficit.
Demands for more market access, technology transfer, cyber security and protecting intellectual property is expected to continue.
Political - While the need for greater cooperation was stressed, there was no significant breakthrough on North Korea.
Trump publicly reminded the need to stop arming, financing and trading with North Korea — most of which is from China.
Mr.Xi insisted that there were enough avenues for China & USA to co-operate and grow mutually.
The need to jointly promote peace and stability in Asia was also stressed.
Notably, Trump had previously warned of selling advanced arms to its regional allies – an assertion of its primacy in Asia.
What lies ahead for India?
The tension between USA’s traditional commitment to economic globalisation and Trump’s ‘America First’ policies is unlikely to be resolved any time soon.
The rise of China and the turbulence in US domestic politics have created a climate of uncertainty.
US and China will continue to jockey for political primacy in Asia.
This situation has led the countries in the region to jockey for diversifying their security partnerships.
In this context, managing its problems with China while simultaneously deepening ties with US and other key Asian partners is crucial for India.
