Russia has been a long time ally of India since early in the cold war days.
But recently, Russia has been gravitating towards “China and Pakistan”, which calls for policy introspection and correction on India’s part.
How has the relationship evolved over the years?
Historically - For the past 70 years since Independence, Russia have been a time-tested ally and major defence supplier for India.
During the cold war, the relationship was very strong and even gave rise to U.S. suspicions that India was an unofficial part of the Soviet camp.
Notably, this was despite New Delhi’s affirmations that it was a leading member of the “Non-Aligned Movement” (NAM).
India’s Shift - India has traditionally sought to maintain a balance between superpowers and refrained from joining groups for preserving its sovereignty.
But in recent years this position appears to have shifted in favour of finding new allies, with changing power structures and security concerns.
This change was amply in displayed when India actively pursued the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (involving US, India, Japan, and Australia).
Notably, this has been conceptualised as security alliance with a vision of ensuring freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region (targeted at China).
Russia’s Shift - In parallel to these creeping changes, Russia’s interest towards Pakistan and China has increased and warmth with India decreased.
Russia-Pakistan relationship is on an upward trajectory, with Russia signalling support for Pakistan’s candidature to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
Joint military exercises between Russia and Pakistan held in 2017, is another major concern as Russia is a long-time trusted military partner for India.
What is the way ahead?
Russia is clearly drifting away from India, and a historically close bilateral relationship with Moscow is become a relatively low priority for New Delhi.
There are multiple risks due to this, but the immediate concern is the possible emergence of a Russia-China-Pakistan trilateral, which isn’t in India’s interest.
China and Pakistan would be eager to support such an alliance as it could arrest India’s strategic momentum in the region and globally.
While bilateral ties are currently at an all time low, there are opportunities to broaden cooperation, which needs to be capitalised on.
