Eastward expansion of NATO - Since the end of Cold War NATO has expanded eastwards by taking in 14 new countries.
This includes the states of the former Warsaw Pact and the three Baltic nations that were once in the Soviet Union.
Russia saw this as an encroachment towards its borders.
Betrayal of Western Promises - Russia view it as a betrayal of Western promises at the start of the 1990s – something the United States and its allies deny.
Ukraine tilt towards West - Ukraine is not a NATO member but has promised to join it since 2008.
Since toppling a pro-Russian president in 2014, it staged joint military exercises with NATO and has taken delivery of weapons including U.S. Javelin anti-tank missiles and Turkish drones.
This could make Ukraine a launch pad for NATO missiles targeted at Russia. Russia needs to lay down “red lines” to prevent that.
Strive for global power –Russia wants to restore its influence throughout the post-Soviet space, defying the West and reassert Russia as a global power.
Resources - Ukraine is the second biggest country in Europe after Russia.
It has major ports on the Black Sea and shares borders with four NATO countries.
It is a major exporter of corn and wheat.
Geography - Europe depends on Russia for about one third of its natural gas and one of the main pipelines passes through Ukraine.
Controlling Ukrainian would enhance Russia’s pipeline security.
This will provide leverage for Putin in any dispute with the West.
Culture – Russia and Ukraine speak closely related languages.
Ukraine and Belarus, formed the Slav core of the Soviet Union.
Russians feel a connection with Ukraine, which they do not feel with other former Soviet republics in the Baltics, Caucasus and Central Asia.
They consider Russians and Ukrainians were one people who shared a single “historic and spiritual space”.
History - The two had been linked since the 9th century when Kyiv became the capital of the ancient state of Rus
From 1654, Russia and Ukraine were united by treaty under the rule of the Russian tsar.
How USA and Ukraine have responded?
Kyiv and Washington view Ukraine’s move as legitimate.
They view it as Ukraine’s defence after Russia seized the Crimea region in 2014.
They provided backing to separatists who are still fighting government forces in eastern Ukraine.
Kyiv rejected Russia’s reference to history as a politically motivated and over-simplified version of history
How has Russia responded?
Russia rejects Ukrainian and U.S. suspicions that it is preparing an invasion of Ukraine
It says it is responding to threats and provocations.
It only wants security guarantees from the West including the rescinding of NATO’s membership promise to Ukraine.
What might be Russia’s plan?
It unlikely that Russia would attempt to seize and defend large swathes of Ukrainian territory because the military cost would be too high.
Keeping the world guessing about a possible invasion Russia has made its security demands to the top of the international agenda.
Using this it will look to complete its unfinished business in Ukraine by blocking its westward shift and reclaiming it as part of a Russian sphere of influence.
