US President Donald Trump has decided to pull all American troops out of Syria and reduce by half the US forces in Afghanistan.
The move could have varied geopolitical and foreign policy implications for India's neighbourhood and the world.
What is Trump's rationale?
The US has about 2,000 troops in Syria and 14,000 in Afghanistan.
Right from his election campaign, Trump had criticised US military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq as extremely expensive and politically foolish.
Rather than spend American blood and treasure abroad to serve other people’s causes, Trump insisted he would put America First.
He has been demanding a thorough overhaul of America’s external commitments.
He claims that the physical infrastructure of the IS caliphate is destroyed.
So the U.S. can leave the war against the remnants of the jihadist group to the Syrian government and its main backers, Russia and Iran.
The caliphate is actually destroyed as the IS has lost 95% of the territory it once controlled.
It is now confined to narrow pockets on the Iraqi-Syrian border.
The U.S. would also not like to get stuck in Syria forever as it is basically Russia’s war.
The U.S. is already stranded in Afghanistan (for 17 years) and Iraq (over 15 years) without a way out.
What are the risk factors of the move?
The U.S. has only 2,000 troops in Syria, and they were not directly involved in the ground battle.
They were supporting the Syrian Democratic Forces, a rebel group led by Kurdish rebels who were in the forefront of the fight against the IS.
The U.S. support for the Kurdish rebels has irked Turkey.
Turkey sees them as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party, the rebels on the Turkish side who have been fighting Turkish troops for decades.
Turkey considers the military consolidation of Kurds as a strategic threat.
In the past, Turkey had attacked Kurds in some pockets on the Syrian side, but was prevented from launching a full-throttle attack because of the U.S. presence.
So the US pull out would in effect be leaving the Syrian Kurds at the mercy of Turkish troops.
A risk factor will emerge if Turkey launches an attack on the Kurdish militants, which President Erdogan has vowed to do.
The Kurds will then have to re-channel their resources to fight Turkish soldiers.
This will weaken the ground resistance against the remaining IS militants on the southern side of the border.
What is the larger implication?
The move marks the end of a prolonged phase of American military interventions in the Middle East and South Asia.
The decision to pull troops out of Syria has predictably upset both the Washington establishment and America’s global allies.
US Defence Secretary, James Mattis, who advised against the withdrawal, has resigned.
Its internal tussle on its external relations is making U.S. an unpredictable factor in international politics.
So the rest of the world has no option but to factor it into their own geopolitical calculus.
Besides this, Trump’s move may undermine the war against the Islamic State.
It would also help legitimise the Syrian ruler Bashar al Assad, and boost his backers in Moscow and Tehran.
In Afghanistan, the decision comes at a time when US has embarked on direct talks with the Taliban brokered by Pakistan.
India - If the decisions are implemented, India will have to take into account the consequences for its western neighbourhood.
This is especially the case with Afghanistan where the U.S. has been fighting the longest war in American history.
India must start preparing for the inevitable geopolitical turbulence.
These may include the resurgence of the IS and the potential return of the Taliban to power in Kabul.
What could have been done?
The ground reality is too complex and requires Mr. Trump to be more patient and strategic in his policymaking.
He could have considered waiting for the conflict in the disturbed zones to de-escalate even further.
Also, he could have gained assurances from Turkey that it would refrain from attacking Kurdish troops.
The cost of being so abrupt is that it leaves a dangerous vacuum in north-eastern Syria.
