US national security adviser John Bolton recently outlined conditions for a U.S. troop departure from Syria.
This has given way to the recent tussle between US and Turkey.
What is the dispute?
The US national security adviser said the troops would leave the war-torn country after the Islamic State is beaten.
He also said Kurds, U.S. allies in the fight against the IS, should be protected.
This contradicts with Trump’s insistence that the withdrawal would be immediate and without any pre-conditions.
Turkish President Erdogan refused to John Bolton’s suggestions for an orderly exit and the plan to protect the Syrian Kurds.
Turkey considers the Syrian Democratic Forces, the official military wing of Syrian Kurdistan, an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.
The Kurdistan Workers’ Party is, indeed, deemed a terrorist group by Turkey and the U.S.
Turkey sees an autonomous, militarily powerful Kurdistan on the Syrian side of the border as a threat to its territorial integrity.
But Turkey was limited by U.S. presence in the Kurdish-populated region in pursuing its own military options.
It is highly likely that Turkey could attack the Kurds as soon as the U.S. troops leave.
What is the implication?
Tensions were so high that Mr. Erdogan refused to meet Mr. Bolton, who was in Turkey.
The U.S. is now in a dilemma.
Its President has announced the withdrawal. But it cannot just exit Syria without considering the existing geopolitical equations in the region.
Part of the problem is with the way Mr. Trump announced his decision to withdraw troops.
He should have held talks with the stakeholders, including Turkey, Russia and Kurds, before taking a decision.
He could have at least used his intent to pull out from Syria as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from other countries involved in the civil war.
What could be done now?
The U.S. could go ahead with the unilateral pull-out irrespective of what Turkey does.
This would leave the Kurds at the mercy of Mr. Erdogan and the Turkish troops.
Otherwise, Trump can wait on his decision and continue to station troops in Syria.
This can influence, at least partially, the outcome of the civil war.
But this is unlikely, given his aversion to keeping troops indefinitely in Syria (and other West Asian conflict zones).
In the third case, the U.S. can stagger the withdrawal and pursue talks with Turkey, Russia and the Syrian government.
It can try reaching an agreement to guarantee the protection of the Kurds and the defeat of the IS in Syria.
US should continue to keep diplomatic channels open to ensure that the pull-out is done in an orderly fashion.
