11/10/2021 - International Relations

KEY POINTS

·        In pursuing its Indo-Pacific strategy, India needs to be mindful of the China-U.S. equations in the region

·        If the rising confrontation between the United States and China erupts into a clash of arms, the likely arena may well be the Taiwan Strait.

·        ‘Taiwan could not be occupied militarily by the newly established People’s Republic of China (PRC) as it became a military ally of the United States during the Korean War of 1950-53.

·        Nevertheless, the U.S. has declared that it will “maintain the ability to come to Taiwan’s defence” while not committing itself to do so. This is the policy of “strategic ambiguity”.

·        Taiwan business entities have invested heavily in mainland China and the two economies have become increasingly integrated.

·        Between 1991 and 2020, the stock of Taiwanese capital invested in China reached U.S. $188.5 billion and bilateral trade in 2019 was U.S. $150 billion, about 15% of Taiwan’s GDP

·        The recent crystallisation of the Quad, of which India is a part, and the announcement of the Australia-U.K.-U.S. alliance, AUKUS, with Australia being graduated to a power with nuclear-powered submarines, may act as a deterrent against Chinese moves on Taiwan.

·        But they may equally propel China to advance the unification agenda before the balance changes against it in the Indo-Pacific.

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