21/04/2020 - International Relations

KEY POINTS

·         The US-China rivalry will remain the core issue, with several other regions and nations jostling to clamber on to the one who can bring them short to medium-term advantages.

·         There is likely to be a huge effort to slander China — accusing it of being the originator of the scourge — and isolate it economically and politically. The allegations on the use of biological warfare are the ones which will cause turbulence in relationships.

·         A cold war of sorts could well be on the cards for some time, hampering a full recovery. It will be brutal in the cyber world — fake news on social media will prevent international cooperation in crucial fields such as scientific research, patents and perhaps even slow down the ability to prevent the next pandemic.

·         Other countries or blocs — ASEAN, Bangladesh and India — will all chip in but that will still not be enough. Nor can any country buy as much grain from the US as China does. So, an economic relationship will continue but will be politically fractured as both parties search for alternatives, which don’t exist on a scale that both of them need.

·         The Chinese ability to influence politics among smaller nations in Asia and Africa could bring it strategic advantages, but it is unlikely to be enough to replace America unless the recession-hit US remains defensively oriented.

·         The UN has lost credibility with the World Health Organisation taking the worst hit any UN agency has suffered in years. However, its future is contingent upon how it manages the geopolitical fallout of the pandemic.

·         Prime Minister of India would need to use all his influence to cobble together international cooperation to pull the world from the abyss it could sink into. It is India’s established multilateral foreign policy that could eventually come to the assistance of the world.