International Relations

KEY POINTS

Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty

·        It was concluded in 1987 and has been hailed as one of the most important arms control agreements between Washington and Moscow.

·        Under the treaty, the US and Soviet Union agreed not to develop, produce, possess or deploy any ground-based ballistic and cruise missiles that have a range between 500 and 5,500 km.

·        It helped address the fears of an imminent nuclear war in Europe.

·        It also built some trust between Washington and Moscow and contributed to the end of the Cold War.

U.S withdrawal

·        Recently, the US has announced about its plan to withdraw from the INF treaty, citing violations by Russia.

·        The treaty left the other nuclear weapon powers free to develop ground-based intermediate range forces. It is also a reason which led U.S to such a decision.

·        India has to seriously examine the implications of the next steps by the major powers.

Challenges

·        If the US deploys a new INF in Asia, to enhance its capacity to deter China, Beijing is bound to react.

·        The focus of a potential new arms race appears to be less on traditional nuclear armed missiles, but precise hypersonic missiles (which travel at least five times the speed of sound) equipped with conventional warheads.

·        Moscow and Beijing have already invested in the development of hypersonic systems.

·        India too has an effort underway on hypersonic missiles part indigenous and part in collaboration with Russia to build on the supersonic Brahmos missiles that travel more than twice as fast as sound.

·        As the US conflict with Russia deepens, Delhi’s partnership with Moscow on advanced military systems will come under increasing scrutiny and pressure.

·        The recent controversy over the acquisition of S-400 from Russia is just the beginning of a trend.

·        Russia’s tightening military embrace with China also casts a shadow over defence ties between Delhi and Moscow.

Opportunities

·        Delhi will have to think long and hard about its missile programme by focusing on the urgent need to ramp up the domestic effort as well as diversify its international collaboration on hypersonic weapons.

·        India needs a significant force of hypersonic missiles to better control escalation to the nuclear level if there is another Doklam-like military confrontation with China.

·        Delhi will also have to cope with the inevitable proliferation of hypersonic systems in its neighbourhood.

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